We Just Lost the Initiative.....

"Red lines" have been crossed and an embolden new administration itches to flex America's military muscle. Russian and Iranian actors continue to support a detestable Assad regime, allowing the Syrian leader to deploy chemical weapons against his adversaries. Over a six year time period, Syria is a messy and complicated quagmire befuddling "foreign policy experts" and the political leadership within both the Democrat and Republican parties, as seen in the current military/political reality on the ground. Since March 2011, when initial protests against the Assad regime began, American's attention to Syria has waxed and waned. Particularly, specific situations have influenced American public opinion on what our reaction should be. The chemical attacks in 2013 (on Ghouta area of Damascus) and the recent attack on Khan Sheikhoun in Idlib province, have invigorated the debate on a military response in Syria. Yet, the refugee crisis and a...

To plagiarize and bastardize an old saying: Libya disintegrates as the world fiddles. UN Security Council Resolution 1973 authorized countries to take "necessary action" to protect civilians from pending attack by forces loyal to Muammar Gaddafi. NATO, seeing a potential southern security risk, engaged in a bombing campaign and enforced a no fly zone that balanced the field to allow rebellion to flourish that ended with the execution of Gaddafi. The end of Gaddafi should have ushered a new era for Libya. Or so we thought.   In the four years since the dawn of the Arab Spring, Libya has become another African basket case - a failing state that is headed towards disintegration and a possible forerunner to a region that harkens back to precolonial boundaries thus ending the Westphalian state in the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region and sub-Saharan Africa. Sectarian and tribal allegiances is becoming the preeminent political force instead of the nation-state.  But...

Figure 1 - MENA region with IS territory in red The year is 2020 and the world map has been significantly altered. ISIS controls a larger swath of territory running through Iraq, Syria, parts of the Sinai, Sudan, Libya, the Fezzan, and northern Mali. Allied groups terrorize Yemen, Lebanon, Mauritania and Western Sahara. From these locations, ISIS cells have strategic reach into Turkey, Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, and even into parts of Europe. Rome is a primary target with NATO and its allies in the crosshairs. The turmoil has further compounded Palestinian and Israeli relations, as well as allowed China to press its strategic advantage in the Pacific and the Russians to play devils advocate in Eastern Europe, with a further distingration of Ukranian national borders, threats to the Baltic countries, and movement to integrate countries in the Balkans.  Where has the United States been as these...

In my previous post I floated the notion of the U.S. recognizing an independent Kurdish state and bemoaned the fact that in political and diplomatic circles (and lets throw in the pundit class in this since they are as culpable as the politicians and policies they pontificate on) this idea is not receiving any real consideration. So why is that?   Simple, U.S. foreign policy is thought of, by the political class, as a linear thought process with the starting point being one presidential election and ending when administrations change. Instead, for an effective foreign policy, one needs to think of it as a network with synapses building linkages across seemingly dissimilar issues. The political class cannot fathom foreign policy as something other than an election soundbite. Let's take a look: September 11th hits and President Bush strives to dislodge Al-Qaeda from Afghanistan through a military operation. The military overwhelms the Taliban regime, dislodges the Taliban and A...