Never Tell Me the Odds.....
We no longer live in our parents neatly defined geopolitical world. The map makers of the 20th Century (Great Britain, France, Germany, Russia, and the United States) no longer are the Masters of the Universe. Look at what is happening with Syria and Iraq: political boundaries are disintegrating before our eyes as the Old World Order undergoes a volcanic upheaval. Sectarian interests are shredding the world map. So how do we navigate these seismic fluctuations.
First, we need to understand that the current political breakdown as we know it is changing. Many of the established political boundaries are colonial fabrications that did not take into account tribal, religious, or historical territory realities "on the ground." As an example, the Sykes - Picot agreement divvied up the Ottoman Empire after World War I creating French and English spheres of influence in the Middle East to the detriment of Arab self-determination. Puppet leaders were installed to ensure the continuation of French and British (and later American) influence in the region. Current regional gyrations are dismantling the legacy of Sykes - Picot. Sectarianism is creating new alliances and jeopardizing the integrity of political boundaries.We see it in the Syrian civil war and the establishment of the Islamic State. Positive developments include the Arab spring that shook up the old established order and created space for democracy to take hold (even though democracy has regressed in most Arab countries).
So to navigate these treacherous waters, it takes new viewpoints and new allies. I go back to previous posts, the U.S. government should recognize and provide support to an independent Kurdish State. Yes, this will cause tension with the Turks but the long term benefits will outlast the short term awkwardness. But the Kurds semen to be the ally who are most aligned with American values and interests in the region.
Iran could be a valued ally in the region if American and Iranian interests can be more aligned. Iran will continue to spread their Shi'a Islamic revolution to Syria, Lebanon ending ultimately in the destruction of Israel but there are areas where positive changes can be made. A way to start realigning regional interests between the U.S. and Iran is to find areas of mutual cooperation that makes sense, such as destroying the threat the Islamic State poses in the region or softening the economic impact of the sanctions on Iran. This does not mean that the U.S. should give Iran a blank check but should demand continued cooperation is pegged to nuclear accountability and renewed vigor to push for diplomatic solutions to address three decades of grievances.
Israel continues to be the most valuable ally in the region but there needs to be greater transparency placed on the Israeli government in its relationship with the Palestinians and non-Jewish citizenry. The Israeli government should be held accountable for expanding settlements into Palestinian territory and the absorption of Palestinian territory. Now do not get me wrong, the Palestinians (ie. Hamas) need to be renounce terrorism as a tactic to gain legitimacy. Israel will always be an important ally but we need to ensure that we have more balanced approach in respect to their relationships with the rest of the region.
Second, we need to look at how we implement foreign policy throughout this new world order. In those volatile regions (specifically the Middle East and Africa) the way we have been doing business needs to evolve. The diplomatic corps comes across as risk adverse and unwilling to venture outside the safety of the embassy's walls (there are a few notable exceptions). The military, on the other hand is a blunt instrument that relies predominantly on overwhelming power to force U.S. interests in any situation.
These two options will not work in dealing with sectarian and tribal actors, unless we want to engage in endless guerrilla type operations that bleed money and with no clear cut exit strategy or even an idea of victory. What is needed are avant-garde leaders who will take the political risk to develop and significantly fund a third option, the diplomat-warrior. These diplomat-warriors would be poached from the very best of the diplomatic corps and the military, as well as civilians with previous prerequisite experience and mindset to succeed in hostile and denied environments.
Merging the diplomatic skills and regional focus with military skills to independently operate in these hostile environments will be difficult at best. A potential starting point would be to mirror the military's civilian affairs branch but enhanced with diplomatic training and specific regional/cultural/language focus. These diplomat-warriors would be under the command and control of the State Department with reach-back into the military, specifically Special Operations Command.
Unfortunately, the attention on foreign policy is fleeting at best and for most only when absolutely necessary. The President gave foreign policy about 3 minutes in his State of the Union address and Congress is more preoccupied by tax rates, Keystone pipeline, off-shoring of business assets, and whole host of other domestic issues.
So until there are political leaders who take foreign policy more seriously than a sound bite and campaign quote, the new world order will speed along passing us by as we continue to react to world events.
First, we need to understand that the current political breakdown as we know it is changing. Many of the established political boundaries are colonial fabrications that did not take into account tribal, religious, or historical territory realities "on the ground." As an example, the Sykes - Picot agreement divvied up the Ottoman Empire after World War I creating French and English spheres of influence in the Middle East to the detriment of Arab self-determination. Puppet leaders were installed to ensure the continuation of French and British (and later American) influence in the region. Current regional gyrations are dismantling the legacy of Sykes - Picot. Sectarianism is creating new alliances and jeopardizing the integrity of political boundaries.We see it in the Syrian civil war and the establishment of the Islamic State. Positive developments include the Arab spring that shook up the old established order and created space for democracy to take hold (even though democracy has regressed in most Arab countries).
So to navigate these treacherous waters, it takes new viewpoints and new allies. I go back to previous posts, the U.S. government should recognize and provide support to an independent Kurdish State. Yes, this will cause tension with the Turks but the long term benefits will outlast the short term awkwardness. But the Kurds semen to be the ally who are most aligned with American values and interests in the region.
Iran could be a valued ally in the region if American and Iranian interests can be more aligned. Iran will continue to spread their Shi'a Islamic revolution to Syria, Lebanon ending ultimately in the destruction of Israel but there are areas where positive changes can be made. A way to start realigning regional interests between the U.S. and Iran is to find areas of mutual cooperation that makes sense, such as destroying the threat the Islamic State poses in the region or softening the economic impact of the sanctions on Iran. This does not mean that the U.S. should give Iran a blank check but should demand continued cooperation is pegged to nuclear accountability and renewed vigor to push for diplomatic solutions to address three decades of grievances.
Israel continues to be the most valuable ally in the region but there needs to be greater transparency placed on the Israeli government in its relationship with the Palestinians and non-Jewish citizenry. The Israeli government should be held accountable for expanding settlements into Palestinian territory and the absorption of Palestinian territory. Now do not get me wrong, the Palestinians (ie. Hamas) need to be renounce terrorism as a tactic to gain legitimacy. Israel will always be an important ally but we need to ensure that we have more balanced approach in respect to their relationships with the rest of the region.
Second, we need to look at how we implement foreign policy throughout this new world order. In those volatile regions (specifically the Middle East and Africa) the way we have been doing business needs to evolve. The diplomatic corps comes across as risk adverse and unwilling to venture outside the safety of the embassy's walls (there are a few notable exceptions). The military, on the other hand is a blunt instrument that relies predominantly on overwhelming power to force U.S. interests in any situation.
These two options will not work in dealing with sectarian and tribal actors, unless we want to engage in endless guerrilla type operations that bleed money and with no clear cut exit strategy or even an idea of victory. What is needed are avant-garde leaders who will take the political risk to develop and significantly fund a third option, the diplomat-warrior. These diplomat-warriors would be poached from the very best of the diplomatic corps and the military, as well as civilians with previous prerequisite experience and mindset to succeed in hostile and denied environments.
Merging the diplomatic skills and regional focus with military skills to independently operate in these hostile environments will be difficult at best. A potential starting point would be to mirror the military's civilian affairs branch but enhanced with diplomatic training and specific regional/cultural/language focus. These diplomat-warriors would be under the command and control of the State Department with reach-back into the military, specifically Special Operations Command.
Unfortunately, the attention on foreign policy is fleeting at best and for most only when absolutely necessary. The President gave foreign policy about 3 minutes in his State of the Union address and Congress is more preoccupied by tax rates, Keystone pipeline, off-shoring of business assets, and whole host of other domestic issues.
So until there are political leaders who take foreign policy more seriously than a sound bite and campaign quote, the new world order will speed along passing us by as we continue to react to world events.
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